UFC 224 – Betting Guide and Value Picks

Despite many fans’ opinion that this event is lacking in some quality fights, there are quite a few good bets to be made with our UFC 224 betting guide.

UFC 224 will take place on May 12, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It features five main card fights and eight prelim fights.

Let’s first take a look at the main card and the UFC 224 betting odds:

Amanda Nunes – 550
Raquel Pennington + 375

Kelvin Gastelum + 110
Ronaldo Jacare – 140

Amanda Cooper +185
Mackenzie Dern – 235

Brian Kelleher + 175
John Lineker – 225

Lyoto Machida – 270
Vitor Belfort + 210

UFC 224 Betting Guide:

Out of these five fights, the two which offer the most value are:

Lyoto Machida (-270) vs. Vitor Belfort (+210)

Machida is a heavy favorite coming in, but his point fighting karate style often leaves bettors with a lot of doubt.

Over half of Machida’s fights go to a decision, whilst all of his knockouts are against non-strikers (Dollaway, Bader, Rashad, Couture, Munoz are all wrestlers).

Whenever Lyoto faces another striker, he tends to lose by knockout or goes to a very close judge’s decision: Mousasi, Shogun and Rampage fights were all close, with Shogun knocking him out in the rematch. Against a ferocious striker like Belfort, it’ll go to a close decision or Belfort will knock him out, making Belfort a great underdog pick.

Of course it could go the other way too, Lyoto could also knock out Belfort, but this isn’t likely because Lyoto lacks the KO power that Belfort has (and Lyoto has NEVER knocked out a guy who’s considered a striker before). Furthermore, I’d say that Vitor Belfort’s chin is a little more durable than Machida’s.

Common opponents:

Between these two, there are a LOT of common opponents (seven to be exact): Jon Jones, Chris Weidman, Dan Henderson, Randy Couture, Gegard Mousasi, Luke Rockhold and Rich Franklin.

The interesting ones to note are:

• Machida was finished by Luke Rockhold whilst Belfort knocked out Luke with a spinning back kick.
• Machida beat Mousasi via close decision, but Belfort was knocked out by Mousasi (both men were landing some hard shots before that).
• Machida only barely managed to outstrike Dan Henderson, whilst Vitor knocked him out twice.

Overall, I’d say Machida only deserves to be a slight favorite against Belfort, but with Belfort at +210, this is probably the best UFC 224 value pick.

Kelvin Gastelum (+110) vs. Ronaldo Jacare (-140)

The second value pick is Kelvin Gastelum against Jacare. This is a very closely contested fight and people are still remembering the kimura submission that Weidman put on Gastelum.

If this fight goes to the ground, Jacare is absolutely capable of doing the same, however, Jacare and Weidman are two different wrestlers.

Weidman’s wrestling is one of the best in his division (Romero is the only contention), which was why he was able to take down Gastelum consistently. Out of all his fights, Weidman has taken down everybody in the first round apart from Yoel Romero.

Jacare’s wrestling is also at a very high level. He’s taken down guys like Tim Boetsch, Robert Whittaker and Gegard Mousasi, however, against Gastelum, it’ll be more difficult since his center of gravity is lower and he has a good wrestling base.

Jacare will need good timing to take down Gastelum (like against fellow wrestler, Boetsch). It’s unlikely that he’ll be able to overpower Gastelum to the ground like Weidman did. On the feet, Gastelum has a significant advantage with his boxing – outstriking everyone except the current champ Tyron Woodley. If it stays standing for even a few minutes, Kelvin can clip Jacare just like how Jacare can submit Kelvin if this fight stays on the ground for a few minutes.

But fights start standing each round and Kelvin has a solid wrestling base and boxing technique. Kelvin Gastelum is a great pick here.